Likely Bottom — DCA in
composite score: 0.000
Bitcoin cycles are driven by on-chain fundamentals, miner economics, and macro liquidity — not short-term price noise. This tool aggregates 25 on-chain and macro signals into a single daily probability score from 0–100%, indicating how closely current conditions resemble past cycle bottoms. A score above 65% has historically been a high-conviction DCA window. Updated twice daily, free, no signup required.
Each signal is individually weighted (0.35–0.95) based on historical predictive accuracy. The composite score is a weighted average calibrated against every Bitcoin cycle bottom since 2017.
Check the score above. A reading above 65% means current on-chain conditions closely resemble the conditions present at every major cycle bottom since 2017. Between 45–65% suggests gradual accumulation. Below 30% suggests patience.
No single metric is definitive, but when MVRV drops below 0, Puell Multiple falls under 0.5, SOPR stays below 1, exchange reserves are declining, and funding rates are deeply negative — the historical base rate for being within 20% of the cycle low is very high. Our model weights all 25 signals together.
MVRV Z-Score = (Market Cap − Realized Cap) / Standard Deviation. It measures how far the current price is from the aggregate cost basis of all coins. Values below 0 have marked every major cycle bottom.
The Puell Multiple is daily miner revenue divided by its 365-day moving average. Values below 0.5 indicate miners are operating at a loss relative to historical norms — a condition that has historically preceded cycle recoveries.
This is not financial advice. The tool gives a probabilistic read on where we are in the cycle based on on-chain data. Use it alongside your own research and risk tolerance.
Twice daily: 00:05 UTC and 12:05 UTC. On-chain metrics reflect prior-day confirmed blockchain data. ETF flows and macro data update in near real-time.
Not financial advice. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results. Bitcoin is a high-risk asset. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.